Economics 101 – 4 of 8 – Labor – Murray N Rothbard

4. Labor

Minimum wage laws force unemployment up. All of those with few skills looking for an entry position will be denied because they cannot add enough value to the business-labor field to be paid minimum wage. Unemployment follows minimum wage hikes. Marginal workers are being denied the labor market.

There were workers in canning businesses making thirty cents an hour who were disemployed when a forty cents minimum wage was enacted. By changing definitions of employment government agencies manipulate figures.

Population growth issues have often been irrational. Overpopulation in one area could be underpopulation in another. Optimum (maximum) populations depend on market systems and capital investment. As levels of living rise, parents decide upon lower birthrates.

The fourth of eight sessions from Murray Rothbard’s Economics 101 series.

A collection of eight speeches and lectures by Murray N. Rothbard, spanning from the 1970s to the early 1990s. He is speaking in a small classroom setting, explaining economics from the ground up, and systematically in the manner of a classic 101 course on the topic—but with a revolutionary approach.

This lecture as a Podcast: http://enemyofthestate.podomatic.com/

Sourced from: https://mises.org/library/economics-101

Source: Economics 101 – 4 of 8 – Labor – Murray N Rothbard – YouTube

http://www.readrothbard.com/economics-101-4-of-8-labor-murray-n-rothbard

TRANSCRIPT

00:00
minimum wage law starts with say the
00:02
first approximation with a good intent
00:04
and the words the ideas here these four
00:06
people and making a salary below which
00:08
the critic wouldn’t want to live or at
00:10
which it’s pretty women 111 too badly
00:12
she went to work for a dollar an hour or
00:14
whatever the amount is therefore
00:17
something should be done to help them
00:18
and the therefore consists of passing a
00:20
law saying from now on nobody’s allowed
00:22
to work at say less than X amount per
00:25
hour about fifty an hour two dollars an
00:28
hour or whatever there’s several
00:29
problems of this looked at
00:31
philosophically one is it if you want to
00:33
help people making less than is all
00:35
fifty an hour
00:36
it seems brought up the queue your way
00:37
of doing it to start off by saying thou
00:39
shalt not work at less than all fifty an
00:40
hour
00:41
thou shalt not employ other people below
00:44
a certain amount because what happens if
00:46
assuming there is evade what happens if
00:49
they’re the employer takes you at your
00:51
word and there’s an employer less than
00:52
all fifty an hour and they you are on
00:54
the beach getting there per hour the
00:56
Lewis is a purely prohibitive rule it
00:58
says ‘as we make it illegal for anybody
01:01
to work at or anybody be hired at less
01:03
than a certain amount okay so what
01:05
happens if you’re not hired that man
01:06
period presumably the tackler person
01:09
wasn’t working say the dollar an hour or
01:10
immensely preferred working in a dollar
01:12
an hour has no income whatsoever yet
01:14
he’s not being deprived of this choice
01:15
because now the government is saying it
01:17
cannot be harmful us for this amount and
01:19
the vanessa some special government
01:22
intervention to help all sorts of people
01:24
the consequences of many of these
01:26
actions are overlooked if you say we
01:28
want to help these poor people these
01:29
marginal workers as we call them if you
01:33
outlaw they’re being hired at what the
01:34
marginal amount that result might well
01:36
be in worldly but there won’t be hard at
01:38
all with what you’re doing aspect we
01:41
could wage rates on the y-axis but
01:44
quantity of labor hours purchased on the
01:46
x-axis which is vs. our old trying to
01:49
man diagram and you have a demand curve
01:51
for labor following a supply curve labor
01:54
rising the intersection point of the
01:57
free market wage rate the government
01:59
puts us for a minimum wage wall above
02:01
the free market point if it puts it
02:03
below it of course it’s sort of simply
02:04
inapplicable rhetoric oh is it the
02:06
government passed a law tomorrow saying
02:07
it’s illegal the pain of death torture
02:10
and whatever to point anybody for less
02:12
than ten
02:12
in our second how much of an impact the
02:15
very few people being employed at a
02:16
center so we have the the minimum
02:19
compression proline above the
02:20
equilibrium point this case is wage
02:23
control but the principles are the same
02:25
so in the case of the farm prices and
02:27
production instead of soybean prices or
02:30
wheat or whatever above the market level
02:32
you say nobody should allow the buyers
02:34
so we can below that instead of a
02:36
situation with a supply of wheat the
02:38
greater than demand for wheat you have
02:39
an unsold surplus in the case of wheat
02:42
the government buys Li the Wheaton
02:44
stores are unused and then as far as
02:46
we’re happy the taxpayers are consumers
02:48
lose because of this case of labor
02:50
supply of workers at the the higher
02:53
amount of such and such that’s a fine
02:55
line the man Culebra is now lower
02:58
literally supply you have now a gap
03:02
created by the minimum wage law an
03:05
unsold surplus of Labor also known
03:08
unemployment we talk about unemployment
03:11
by the way this trust all economics is a
03:13
regenerative
03:14
not just for wages for anything else
03:16
this trust only economists never talk
03:18
about the price system and you find this
03:19
form any establishment economists
03:22
Keynesian so forth the Rochas of
03:24
elaborate models was somehow actually
03:26
the depth of the system get left out
03:27
they may run employment center support
03:30
about unemployment without talking about
03:31
at what price
03:32
that water wage are you talking that for
03:35
example if a businessman has selling
03:37
furniture they tables and says he’s
03:40
willing buy own so suppose he can’t
03:41
stall of the surplus he shorted $10,000
03:44
for a table that guy down the street is
03:46
charging 500 sure hon I’m sold surplus
03:48
for the solution then it wasn’t at the
03:50
price until he can sell the inventory
03:52
that’s the same way here with Malayan
03:54
market anybody can be unemployed if you
03:57
raise your wage rate high enough the
03:59
fine had it be known that all and sundry
04:01
I will not work for less than a million
04:02
dollars a year I’ll meet my high
04:04
standard by not working at all
04:05
so totally my unemployment is senseless
04:07
without saying unemployment at white
04:09
wage rate are you talking about if I
04:12
brought my wage rate down considerably
04:14
I could probably be employed as I am now
04:16
there’s a sad case of the Queen long
04:19
standing it was a free market economists
04:21
the rights about minimum wage laws quite
04:23
intelligently yet in his own personal
04:25
life
04:25
as applied as peculiar principle 15
04:28
years ago he decided that he was worth a
04:29
certain amount he would not take a job
04:32
for less than that and that was pretty
04:33
high was those of us who knew him was
04:35
considerably above his marginal
04:37
productivity and a little 11 which he
04:39
has not been employed the last 15 years
04:41
in other words you render yourself
04:44
unemployed by upping your wage rate your
04:46
minimum wage rate in the case of the
04:48
minimum wage laws the government does a
04:49
for us or for the marginal workers
04:52
people who become surplus in other words
04:54
the unemployed people become unemployed
04:57
are the very people who governor
04:59
supposed to be helping if you jack up
05:00
the minimum wage war say $2 60 an hour
05:03
the guys would be unemployed will not
05:05
these at $10 an hour people they’re in
05:06
great shape
05:07
it’s the marginal workers who are
05:09
getting about us a dollar fifty an hour
05:11
will be tossed out of employment a
05:13
beautiful case of negative feedback what
05:17
happened to the course of the supply
05:18
curve of labor being pushed to the left
05:20
in other words the cycle earlier being
05:21
restricted but people who continue
05:24
working a really benefit from this
05:26
because they are their competition is
05:28
being excluded from the market which
05:30
lead us to believe that perhaps one of
05:33
the reasons why I organize a union
05:34
movement is always very much in favor of
05:35
minimum wage almost the higher better is
05:38
the cousin to keep jacking up the
05:39
minimum wages I was 16 our two dollars
05:41
to twenty three etc they’re kicking out
05:44
marginal workers from the labor market
05:46
and not available to compete with
05:48
existing union members with seniority
05:50
and so forth then if I’m much of the
05:53
social legislation in the past 50 years
05:54
can be looked at or 70 years as a result
05:58
of this kind of pressure over par
05:59
businessmen and unions keep out
06:01
competition in the case of Labor it’s
06:04
the union movement keeping our
06:05
immigration for example a if a relish
06:07
wishes was the trade union federation
06:09
1920s wasn’t it major lobbyists
06:12
responsible for keeping out immigrants
06:14
for changing the United States from a
06:16
free immigration system which it was the
06:18
17th of these they’re very tightly
06:20
controlled situationally and a quota
06:22
system and all the rest of it this is
06:24
brought about by the AF of L push the
06:26
supply curve of wait enter labor to the
06:28
westin raise the wage rates of those who
06:30
are lucky enough to be emigrants before
06:32
1920 just as licenses restrict people in
06:36
America professional photography
06:38
business or whatever
06:39
immigration laws keep out foreign
06:41
laborers to compete with existing
06:44
residents and minimum wage laws do a
06:46
similar thing by an indirect way by
06:48
rendering people are employed in general
06:51
I urge everybody to look at government
06:52
measures not in terms of the public
06:53
welfare ever come and good and all the
06:55
rest of it not in terms of tragic
06:57
failure to achieve this it is the
07:01
government doing all sorts of stuff
07:02
seemingly for the public interest to
07:04
come and go the general welfare well
07:05
which are usually inimical all these
07:06
things if we can even define them to
07:08
look at government really different
07:09
light as a conscious agency for doing
07:11
all sorts of monopolizing authorizing
07:13
and restrictive things in other words
07:15
the governor is not that dumb well the
07:17
government leadership is not that I’m a
07:19
lobbyist for example compulsory
07:21
attendance laws and keeping kids in
07:23
school for umpteen years keep enormous
07:27
number of kids with labor market so
07:29
instead of kids working the first to go
07:30
to public schools or high schools and he
07:33
kept the rest for labor force Polly the
07:35
education they get us we now know it’s
07:37
pretty bad the public schools perform a
07:39
custodial function of keeping kids off
07:41
labor fourth and this hasn’t other
07:43
measures for example urging everybody to
07:44
get an AED or be urging everybody get a
07:46
PhD all these things that you can hardly
07:49
enter the labor force anymore here about
07:50
thirty-five as this spreads throughout
07:52
the society where workers that exclusion
07:55
labor force and laser the laser eyes of
07:57
those who are lucky enough that could be
07:59
caught up in this we have this kind of
08:01
deliberate restriction as policy and
08:03
labor market the China labor legislation
08:05
and we look upon a different light for
08:07
there being a underfae legislation how
08:09
kids but it really is the legislation to
08:12
keep kids with labor market I can early
08:14
19th century that are they boom the kids
08:17
to be in the labor market because they
08:18
were working instead of starving at home
08:20
almost nobody felt of kids were being
08:22
exploited if they’re working on a
08:24
textile factories it’s only later on
08:26
looking at a point of you have much more
08:28
affluent society when you don’t have to
08:30
have kids were humanly factories little
08:33
component all this was hard but at the
08:34
time considered a great argument for
08:36
factories one argument the protectionist
08:38
use the free traders are never able to
08:40
really meet the protection would say
08:42
cotton tech our factories our greatest
08:44
thing we should deliberately subsidize
08:46
them restrict and earn young reports so
08:49
that we can have employ more kids in the
08:51
fact
08:51
and the free traders never answer by
08:53
saying a bunch of monsters your favor
08:55
hiring kids I have to concede it’s a
08:57
good thing that it’s working anyway now
08:59
we have complete reversal of this where
09:01
kids would be excluded in labor market
09:02
by all sorts of legal measures position
09:05
of compulsory attendance law was also
09:06
Charlie Brown was the true historians
09:09
looks at measures of government like
09:11
this first he says cui bono who benefits
09:13
from government measure you look around
09:15
you find the union’s benefit from try
09:17
labor laws or minimum wage laws or
09:19
immigration restrictions they don’t stop
09:22
there you see this is an unsound
09:23
conspiracy view of history is it as a
09:25
rational conspiracy view of history as
09:27
an irrational sort of wampa ecotourism
09:30
there’s the theory history the sloppy
09:32
view only says cui bono illness oh ha
09:35
these guys are responsible or evil and
09:37
so forth and starts attacking unions and
09:39
cetera on that basis the true dispersity
09:42
theorists the rational is a theorist and
09:44
then he looks more deeply listen who
09:46
clears these measures who brought him a
09:47
man who lobbied for them who keeps
09:49
lobbying for and by God he finds the
09:51
labor union this confirms it this makes
09:53
him a scholar instead of a hopped-up
09:55
paranoid so scholarship who essentially
09:59
confirming your early paranoid we move
10:03
to a deeper factual analysis when we get
10:06
the monopoly so forth the same way the
10:08
Rockefellers and oal or whatever not
10:11
enough to say the Rockefellers always
10:12
benefit from every government measure
10:13
you have to go to the details find out
10:14
they really lobbies for it fine I guess
10:16
indeed they did and then your that wraps
10:18
it up let’s see the thing about the
10:20
minimum wage people they resist this and
10:24
that’s to say all right if you say the
10:25
minimum wage will then create
10:27
unemployment that’s your contention why
10:29
stop at a dollar sixty an hour two
10:31
dollars of 250 you want to go out and if
10:33
it’s really a good thing one out of ten
10:35
dollars an hour $100 now a thousand
10:37
dollars an hour we why not what’s the
10:39
problem there and a thing of this is me
10:41
some fuzzy knowledge of the part of the
10:43
minimum wage and rickets that there
10:45
would indeed be something wrong with
10:46
pushing a minimum wage up to $1,000 an
10:48
hour
10:48
of course we’d all be on the beach would
10:49
be 99 percent unemployment 100 percent
10:52
unemployment situation they have to sort
10:54
of acknowledge that he pressed them on
10:56
us other words got a minimum wage people
10:58
have indeed been fairly intelligent and
11:00
limiting the minimum wage
11:01
only this employing a certain amount
11:03
instead of disappointedly buddy they’re
11:05
limiting this as a matter of fact that’s
11:07
not interesting Journal article years so
11:09
ago trying to analyze the minimum wage
11:11
advocates concluding it well what they
11:13
do is they keep the minimum wage low
11:16
enough there’s not to dis employ the
11:18
majority of it for the labor force these
11:19
part disappoints a 51% in labor force
11:22
that’s getting kind of hairy losing your
11:24
constituency if the only hang you only
11:26
dis employed ten twenty thirty that’s so
11:28
bad so the certain psychological
11:30
political limit I should say on the
11:32
minimum wage laws but in theory of
11:34
course when the minimum wage advocates
11:36
don’t acknowledge this then sit down and
11:37
say yeah you’re right might lead to some
11:39
unemployment they just sort of stop it
11:41
as almost sixty two dollars to twenty
11:43
whatever something in their gut must
11:45
tell them but there’s something wrong
11:47
with pushing and hire course what’s
11:49
wrong is you’re disappointing people and
11:51
if you disappoint people are ten dollars
11:52
an hour and you’ll also be disappointed
11:53
people have two dollars except less what
11:56
you’re doing is a majority little bit
11:58
for suppressing a minority the
12:00
disadvantaged the marginal workers of
12:03
the ones or everybody we pay in that
12:05
these are the people who are being put
12:07
on the beach being disemployment liberal
12:10
humanitarian action of minimum wage it
12:12
was interesting enough I’ve had
12:14
conversations with intelligent
12:16
minimum-wage advocates you glinsky a
12:19
gives you a little bit of this and they
12:20
will acknowledge they’ll go on to a
12:21
higher level or another level and say
12:24
higher level the second line of defense
12:25
for minimum wage laws is okay you’re
12:28
right they do this employ people but
12:30
it’s a good thing because people
12:31
shouldn’t be forced to in quotes work at
12:34
being wage it’s better for them to be on
12:36
welfare better than meets another young
12:39
period and living on welfare and this
12:41
will be working at less than five
12:42
dollars an hour what really the right is
12:44
here we should kind of a we’re at
12:46
impasse what do you do with people like
12:47
that I’ll leave it to your imagination
12:50
in other words really then and even a
12:52
I’ve got they will acknowledge this fact
12:53
we don’t care about it almost the favor
12:55
of it the various examples of us even in
12:59
the George Stigler nose I think there
13:02
was early edition a theory of price pork
13:05
the back what happened with in during
13:06
1930s when the first federal minimum
13:08
wage world came in I think was 40 cents
13:10
an hour that sounds very low but for
13:12
1930 there was
13:13
that low we have to consider the prices
13:15
and whatever it is triple or something
13:16
since then there were quite a few people
13:19
who are making say 30 cents an hour who
13:21
are disciplined by the 40 cent minimum
13:22
now the KC where was the clam diggers
13:25
this cannery Road types of John
13:27
Steinbeck’s novel were out there
13:29
clamming California and the thing is the
13:32
climbers are making 30 cents an hour
13:33
which sounds terrible but the point was
13:34
they went out there is mostly Mexican
13:36
American climbers many of them had a
13:38
large I realizes the stereotype it still
13:40
it’s true but even have large families
13:42
that’s a little woman out there their
13:45
husband the wife and the eight kids
13:46
would go out in the clam boat they all
13:48
clam for 30 cents an hour sailor which
13:50
was a fairly decent income for the whole
13:52
family
13:52
what he said minimum wage came in and
13:55
dis employ the whole group because of 40
13:56
cents it didn’t pay for the Cantor’s and
13:58
separator hire them for the clamming so
14:01
they all became unemployed this fine
14:03
night came around the road went running
14:05
story about the unemployment in cannery
14:06
row and so forth not of course realizing
14:09
this was do not the capitalism but the
14:10
minimum wage more even 40 spent there
14:13
are other cases of this the moon wage
14:15
laws for example minimum wage laws often
14:17
exempt various industries quarterly they
14:20
exempt a low wage industry like
14:21
restaurant agriculture sector cetera
14:24
they do it not because of the evil
14:26
political influence of the agribusiness
14:28
or restaurant business they’re not that
14:29
powerful anyway they do it because they
14:31
realize deep in their got that if they
14:32
extended it quickly everybody it’ll be
14:34
unemployed you have a vast amount of
14:36
unemployment agriculture and restaurant
14:39
business pepper they do it very gingerly
14:41
and sort of step by step they’re just
14:43
enough listen play a few people and I’ve
14:44
not everybody disappoint my Norah T but
14:48
once in a while you have sort of case
14:49
studies the extend minimum wage laws and
14:51
suddenly everybody’s out of work New
14:53
York Times in an article and then four
14:55
or five years ago is about when minimum
14:58
wage we has a finally extended the
14:59
cotton plantations and I think was
15:02
Mississippi there’s a whole front page
15:04
article because even when you are time
15:05
to this point and understanding
15:06
relationship between minimum wages
15:08
unemployment because there’s a media
15:10
that was clear as that’s what immediate
15:12
feedback all of a sudden the January the
15:14
first whatever the date was minimum wage
15:16
was were suddenly extended to the
15:18
previously exempt industry cotton
15:19
plantations and bingo 10,000 cotton
15:23
plantation workers out of work it was a
15:25
rape quick and obvious
15:27
situation even the times as they could
15:29
grasp this I don’t think they extended
15:31
the rest of their philosophy or anything
15:33
or even to the rest of their ideas and
15:35
minimum wage laws at least for this
15:36
particular point they could grasp this
15:39
what happens these 10,000 people will
15:41
either go on welfare in Mississippi or
15:43
they come up to New York go on welfare
15:45
or right but the point is that being
15:47
listen for what they wanted to do it
15:49
would have preferred doing rather than
15:50
jump up to New York and looking for work
15:52
here so we have this situation
15:56
constantly the minimum wage or the
15:57
constantly causing this on employment
15:59
another case again this sort of
16:01
exemption in kind of case whereas again
16:03
a very clear there was a few years ago
16:04
also the minimum wage laws are extended
16:07
on cracking in this neck cramp packing
16:09
in a situation where particularly in
16:12
North Carolina cranky is a marginal
16:14
industry reason being North Carolina a
16:16
peculiar state because there’s no port
16:18
in most southern states for example have
16:20
a big port somewhere Charleston Savannah
16:23
or whatever but in lesson Olivia poor
16:26
mixed cities are inland only was cramped
16:29
a key has to be done on a coast so there
16:31
was a high transportation course they
16:32
got the crabs the Packer crabs and ship
16:35
it for the major centers of consumption
16:37
because of this North Carolina crap
16:39
hacking firms and the most marginal in
16:42
the whole crab packing industry well
16:43
sure enough something a few years ago
16:45
when in ways were extended a crab
16:47
packing we male hold Mitchum’s North
16:49
Carolina crab packing fun to go bankrupt
16:51
and whole bunch of North Carolina crab
16:52
packing employees are underemployed tens
16:56
of thousands because of this again you
16:58
had a kind of a media situation which is
16:59
fairly evident
17:01
totally about unemployment we’re going
17:04
to be these marginal workers
17:05
we’re going to be the least skilled
17:07
workers why they’re at least skilled
17:09
this is a philosophic point each
17:11
economist need not get into class
17:13
educated maybe let’s go period well you
17:16
said culture whatever happens to be at
17:18
this point having beliefs well teenagers
17:21
for example usually less care than
17:22
adults because they’re just starting out
17:23
the sort of printed situation Negroes
17:27
for various reason life skill and white
17:28
workers that we would expect that if if
17:31
a minimum wage law comes into this
17:32
employ more highly more proportionately
17:35
one teenage workers and two Negro
17:37
workers and either whites are adults we
17:40
will see
17:40
how this works a minute and Ford Ganga
17:43
of fears should all stop our
17:45
unemployment right unemployment is a
17:47
fine as an enumerator you have number of
17:53
people seeking work obviously not
17:57
working at the present time and in the
17:59
denominator you have those working plus
18:02
those seeking work the nominator is
18:05
called the labor force labor force the
18:07
whores
18:07
the number of people who have jobs that
18:10
are looking for jobs so this is a number
18:12
of unemployed divided by the labor force
18:15
this gives you the unemployment
18:16
percentage which we read every month
18:18
down five point five percent of way
18:19
around today this gives you the ratio
18:21
how do you know who’s seeking work plus
18:24
of course a very difficult problem the
18:26
course for all sorts of higher radio
18:27
summation and purl investigation we
18:30
don’t really know it’s a very tricky
18:31
kind of thing but at least presumably
18:34
looking at changes in the unemployment
18:36
rate over a few years it gets sort of
18:38
say well it may be fairly accurate but
18:41
it’s a problem no question my fact that
18:43
additions are a very bad shape here and
18:44
on one hand you can be people who are
18:47
not working you don’t want to work the
18:48
other hand there are people who might
18:50
not be seeking work that are so
18:51
discouraged they’d like to be working
18:53
there sort of stories they’d given up
18:54
seeking how do you measure that what’s
18:56
obviously very difficult with that
18:58
caveat we aren’t of the relationship
19:01
this is a year and only Freeman losing
19:03
pamphlet cool I forget the title of it
19:06
was published by a free society
19:07
Association remembering wage who pays at
19:10
the title there are lots of other
19:11
studies incidentally I’m minimum wages
19:12
all they would confirm into the theory
19:14
illustrate theory I should say but the
19:17
femen those are thing I think is the
19:18
most romantic far as I know has ever
19:20
been nobody’s really attempted to refute
19:22
one column you have a federal minimum
19:25
wage law I don’t minimum wage rate I
19:28
think you have a number of years years
19:31
then you have a percentage based on this
19:35
fraction of Negro teenage unemployment
19:40
this is actually the male unemployment
19:42
but they were later figures on female
19:44
unemployment which collaborate this and
19:45
then white teenage unemployment and the
19:49
unemployment right there I should say
19:52
again about unemployment rate
19:53
we feel I’m juggling with the rake but
19:56
usually it was considered for employment
19:57
or was the situation we consider
20:00
everything is sort of hunky-dory
20:01
full employment was used to be something
20:03
like 3% but one thing you had to have a
20:06
certain percentage even if you have a
20:07
very booming economy no problem labor
20:10
people are especially United States
20:12
people worried leaving work and going
20:14
somewhere else
20:14
leaving occupations are shifting
20:16
something else they move to New York to
20:18
California let us take some time during
20:20
this time period they’re unemployed
20:22
officially this unemployment called
20:24
frictional on point either the part of
20:26
the friction of moving from one place to
20:27
the other this frictional unemployment
20:29
rate specifically about three percent in
20:32
any one is something like 1 percent or 2
20:34
percent of England first of all people
20:35
are moving very much I said well if they
20:37
have to move it haven’t got very far to
20:39
go small country in the United States
20:42
however that’s a big huge place than if
20:44
you move from Massachusetts a California
20:46
your that’s a long undertake
20:49
professional process of quitting and
20:51
then we adjust thing in a finding
20:52
another job or a stuff 3% recession rate
20:57
well this is kind of difficult what you
20:59
mean by recession the sort of a
21:00
recession rate is something like 6 to 7
21:02
percent over five to seven or whatever
21:04
it’s called out a recession unemployment
21:07
the thing has had been redefining full
21:09
employment recently because the
21:10
employment rate usually considers 3
21:13
percent then they crept up before
21:14
because the government statisticians
21:16
when you’re dealing a government you’re
21:17
the two ways of solving a problem or I
21:19
should say one way of solving a problem
21:21
and that is the reason point it’s an
21:23
ain’t no problem anymore
21:24
if you say this for the point of rate is
21:26
3% and I’m the rate is really 5% you
21:29
have this big worry if it’s 2 percent
21:31
gap what you do about it if you can’t
21:33
solve it i usally reifies full
21:35
employment the 5% then you have any
21:37
problem anymore
21:37
that’s essentially the government
21:39
economists have been doing up the amount
21:40
the sort of part I think Phil employment
21:42
was 5 percent then everything is great
21:44
right this is a fun play of doing it can
21:48
you say if you can’t solve a problem
21:49
you’re redefine are the goose recession
21:51
right let’s say 6 7% a really depression
21:54
right really hotshot ready to say 10%
21:56
unemployment that’s really a rough rate
21:59
which we might be getting to fairly soon
22:01
think of a government messes up the
22:03
energy crisis as it has been doing and
22:06
you have the 1929 right the really super
22:09
depression rate which continued
22:11
approximately 1929 approximately
22:13
nineteen forty the government got us out
22:15
of the depression manufacturing a huge
22:17
world war that’s situation we have
22:20
unemployment rate of say twenty five
22:22
percent that’s really a rough one
22:24
twenty to twenty five percent C one way
22:27
of em again see out of unemployment
22:28
through a war if they’re ten million
22:30
unemployed website you grasp the ten
22:32
million of the army then you got no
22:33
unemployment anymore so they’re not
22:37
seeking work there no woman will a
22:38
report they’re out there fighting being
22:40
killed or whatever and they’re off the
22:42
labor market which is another reason why
22:44
many times status or favor a large or me
22:47
let’s get back to our chart now that we
22:49
put unemployment rates in perspective we
22:52
have our Freeman Rosen chart but before
22:54
1949 put on minimum wage let’s say from
22:58
World War two the nineteen forty nine
22:59
forty cents an hour that’s another thing
23:02
I should say about minimum wage laws
23:03
there’s one great way of overcoming
23:04
minimum wage laws inflation in other
23:07
words if suddenly the government jacks
23:09
up a minimum wage of five dollars an
23:10
hour outside we know half the population
23:13
might be unemployed the way to overcome
23:14
this was one way to repeal the law a
23:16
classier way to overcome is by inflating
23:19
so much of the final doesn’t mean
23:20
anything put a little dollar hmm you
23:23
might back only point of that way the
23:25
faculty way of doing it before 1949
23:27
leave your teenage unemployment rate was
23:29
something like eight percent and the
23:31
white rate of 8 percent teenage
23:33
unemployment rate might tend to be
23:35
larger there was soem mobile cetera we
23:38
still have a percentage fairly large
23:40
already if you’re looking with a
23:41
recession level but fill in or wasn’t
23:45
too drastic and the rate was the same
23:47
for Negro and white and the interesting
23:48
thing there is we now talk economists
23:51
now talk about the Negro why teenage
23:52
unemployment gap as if it’s some sort of
23:54
god-given phenomenon before 1949 it
23:57
wasn’t the unemployment rate was the
24:00
same for whites and Negro teenagers ok
24:02
that comes the the first big jacking up
24:04
of the minimum wage rate 75 cents an
24:06
hour in nineteen forty nine fifty it
24:09
takes about six months for the economy
24:10
to rev up and read adjust to this stuff
24:12
then about six months by god we suddenly
24:14
have white rate goes up to about 11
24:16
percent depression level and then you
24:19
are regular
24:20
14% he’s wrong higher this is the
24:23
beginning of a famous gap the Negro
24:25
white teenage unemployment gap the
24:27
function of minimum wage war comes into
24:29
the 1949 changing the law that he comes
24:32
unfortunately for most of us
24:34
fortunately however for the unemployed
24:37
labor force
24:38
then comes the Korean War big we’ve big
24:42
draft inflation so forth Korean War
24:45
comes in 1950 is 53 and this thing sinks
24:49
back those like to eat any we’re back to
24:52
8 and 8 everybody forgets about the
24:54
Negroes waiting on employment gap and
24:56
everything is hotsy-totsy except we’re
24:57
killing Koreans and they’re telling us
24:59
what so on only on the minimum wage
25:01
front everything’s great
25:04
the white rate goes up to 10% to 14%
25:08
just bad enough the Negro teenager rate
25:11
however makes his big dramatic
25:13
breakthrough week to 24% so now we have
25:17
a Negro teenage unemployment rate the 24
25:20
/ 7 super depressing the one with 1929
25:23
depression levels which might have some
25:25
correlation between that and and a Negro
25:28
riding going on later so they’re not
25:30
impossible the hunger of that you have
25:32
1/4 it was teenage population seeking
25:35
work you’re not getting it and I might
25:37
boy a certain amount of edginess
25:39
population and this continues from then
25:42
on the point is this we now he’s a big
25:45
new plateau a minimum wage on employment
25:46
structure here we have the biggest Negro
25:49
white unemployment gap which continues
25:51
forever
25:51
from then on permanent part of the
25:53
American heritage and we have a very
25:55
high teen age Negro unemployment rate
25:57
also continues with a program called
25:58
American heritage and that’s it
26:00
and it was almost as if of the
26:01
diabolical hand was at work then from
26:03
then on FEMA bows and show that every
26:05
time the unemployment on the
26:07
unemployment rate would dip a little bit
26:08
Congress would jack up the minimum wage
26:09
again other ten cents another nickel and
26:11
shoot it up again some was listed some
26:14
guiding diabolic hand down there running
26:16
here high unemployment just he knew that
26:19
possibly this event the 1966 frozen
26:23
wrote their article was pointed this out
26:25
and say look look this is what’s been
26:27
happening and they were then debating in
26:28
the great new breakthrough a minimum
26:30
raise the minimum wage of a dollar 65 an
26:33
hour from US dollar and quarter I think
26:35
the world had to reach by the rule my
26:37
knees step and Friedman warned the went
26:41
down testified before Congress and
26:42
warned that if you do this if you raise
26:44
the minimum wage rate does all 60 an
26:46
hour you’re going to have 33 percent
26:48
unemployment teenage Negro unemployment
26:50
and they won’t say crazy ridiculous look
26:52
no relation whatsoever with a minimum
26:54
wage of employment sure enough they put
26:55
it in and sure enough within a year or
26:57
two teenage Negro unemployment rate was
26:59
up to about 33 34 35 where it stay where
27:02
it remains to this day so we have 35
27:05
percent point now point to bruising who
27:10
had prior personal contact with the rate
27:12
is really much higher but it includes a
27:13
seeking work part a lot of teenage
27:16
Negroes are discouraged a really seeking
27:18
were discouraged figured there’s no
27:20
point in speaking and no point going
27:21
down to the office and whatever trying
27:23
to find a job you include all that in
27:26
the rate is something like sixty sixty
27:27
percent so how that was permanent
27:31
problem is shirt off the AF of l-cio of
27:33
the process of passing minimum wage goes
27:35
up to two dollars two and quarter or
27:37
whatever get me the latest agitation
27:40
though something like that and if we
27:41
continue that the inflation doesn’t
27:43
absorb the whole rate so much that you
27:46
can have as much unemployment as you
27:47
want by simply increasing minimum wage
27:49
this is the my friend and just as other
27:52
people and here we have this clear-cut
27:55
case as I say the second line of defense
27:56
of the advocates of moving wages well
27:58
they don’t deserve looking at below two
28:01
dollars an hour after there’s better be
28:03
on welfare what I welcome your position
28:06
is tight things to make there are other
28:08
sinister forces where there’s no sort of
28:10
misguided idealist in this kind of
28:12
liberal humanitarians they want to raise
28:14
up the poor and do it by this employing
28:16
them so that’s that’s been misguided
28:18
part of it but then there are also a
28:20
more sinister forces at work already
28:21
mentioned labor unions keeping of
28:23
restricting a supplier of labor pushing
28:26
into the left
28:26
example in the Friedman Rosen pamphlet
28:29
they closed senator Javits so species he
28:30
made in the mid-60s before Congress or
28:33
the Senate defending a higher minimum
28:36
wage when he said why we can’t allowed
28:38
the product of cheap labor to come up
28:41
from the south where wage laws are a
28:42
lower
28:43
to to interfere whether I’m compete our
28:46
heroic textile manufacturers in New York
28:49
and so forth
28:51
and here we touching another important
28:53
another of a situation which is the the
28:55
use of imposing higher wage cloth or any
28:57
cost amendment the use of imposing
28:59
higher courts on the whole industry in
29:00
order to shank your competitors in this
29:04
situation you have a kind of a regional
29:06
thing in the United States where the
29:10
north has been a dust realized much
29:12
faster than the south those other than
29:14
that since the launch of productivity in
29:16
northern workers have been higher than
29:17
southern workers because of the
29:18
increased capital investment the living
29:20
wage rates have been generally higher
29:22
than southern wage rate the result of
29:24
the situation in a free market is a
29:27
two-fold tendency toward equilibrating a
29:30
long-run equilibrating this this
29:32
situation one through southern workers
29:34
moving to the north
29:35
taking advantage of the higher wage
29:37
rates and thereby today raised wage
29:39
rates in the south and lower them in the
29:40
north and primatech for equilibrium and
29:42
secondly the Tennessee of northern
29:45
employers in northern capital the move
29:47
from the north of the south to take
29:49
advantage of the lower wage rates there
29:50
this tends to industrializing the south
29:53
this is sort of a general and long-run
29:54
tendency now this general normal in
29:56
Tennessee is particularly important of
29:58
course in Lee and those industries and
29:59
then the work which are marginal anyway
30:01
which is inefficient obsolescence and so
30:03
forth such as textiles which is printing
30:05
it so we can do a much better much
30:08
better by going out of the south have a
30:09
much better labor pool cheap cheaper
30:11
land prices and so forth so on well we
30:14
have a situation where indeed the
30:16
printers southern printers and southern
30:18
textile manufacturers now compete
30:20
northern nor the north where the
30:22
northern manufacturers would like to do
30:24
what they love to do is I have a Harris
30:26
born as a Potomac a high tariff barrier
30:29
because it used the same bloody
30:31
arguments that they do against Chinese
30:32
and Japanese labor and African and so
30:34
forth we’re outcomes we are forced to
30:36
compete lease trouble low-wage employers
30:39
seven this case is within the United
30:41
States but the point is it’s the same
30:43
sort of argument the fact that there’s
30:45
no national boundary between us was
30:46
really not important matter of fact if I
30:47
had know the civil war had been
30:49
successful in the southern point port
30:51
there would have been apparently
30:52
man reading probably would have been a
30:53
very high parent barrier against
30:55
southern products they’d like to impose
30:58
a high cost barrier on the south
31:01
preferably by a protective tariff since
31:03
they can’t do that because that’s still
31:05
unconstitutional one of the few things
31:06
that fully yet unconstitutional the
31:09
northern manufactures of turn over
31:10
subtler device or the inefficient one
31:13
which is that will push for a big
31:15
federal minimum wage war because this
31:16
wage laws those wages are lower in the
31:18
south or in the north if you impose a
31:20
federal minimum wage and everybody going
31:22
to hit far more southern workers and
31:24
employers and well northern so in other
31:26
words you’re imposing higher cost and
31:27
everybody supposedly yet most of the
31:29
people being hit of the southern
31:30
southern competitors as I say Javits
31:33
spell this out Clayton Lee in the speech
31:37
we what we have here that unholy
31:39
alliance between liberal humanitarians I
31:41
don’t know what they’re doing
31:43
afl-cio people who are very well they’re
31:45
doing in and northern an efficient or
31:47
the manufacturers also know what they’re
31:49
doing who by her to forces be largely
31:51
responsible for them money and the
31:53
muscle uh lobbying for that increase
31:55
minimum wage so we have once again as in
31:59
many other things we have our unholy
32:00
alliances seen Willie headedness and
32:02
sinister interest that’s working
32:04
hand-in-hand the the disadvantages rest
32:07
of the population there’s very good
32:09
paper backed by Stuart and somebody on
32:14
many economic effects the minimum wage
32:16
laws which goes goes a lengthy analysis
32:19
one of the things they found after
32:21
example is leaked there’s no minimum
32:22
wage laws on that the textile machine
32:25
other industries then the increased
32:26
concentration in the industry in other
32:27
words the particularly bankrupt the
32:29
smaller employers who can’t afford to
32:31
pay a higher wage rate so another
32:34
sinister interest at work here there’s
32:36
larger firms within the same industry I
32:38
have to put high bones on the
32:39
competition of this more competitive
32:41
rise amount of business or Bank or quasi
32:44
bankrupt them and this is true Italian
32:46
social legislation in general okay
32:49
that’s I think cover is the minimum wage
32:52
I also want to get into today into the
32:57
rap off the whole labor sphere or a
33:00
whole population question so there are
33:03
fans and population
33:05
population hysteria now the thing is I’m
33:07
at this point old enough to remember
33:08
population history the opposite
33:10
direction I was growing up the late 30s
33:13
early 40s there’s lots of population
33:15
history except it was a reverse of the
33:16
present one idea then was a few babies
33:18
being born in France for example the
33:21
birth rate has fallen considerably for
33:22
less previous 20 years they were talking
33:24
about racial suicide or national suicide
33:26
of the French population be known
33:28
Frenchmen less than 50 years they
33:30
extrapolate these trending of
33:31
collarbones than anything and also all
33:34
these countries needed a lot of people a
33:36
lot of young physically fit young men
33:38
are going to the army get shot and that
33:40
source of that cannon fodder would dry
33:42
up that was a trouble thing – there’s a
33:45
big intellectual and cultural push for a
33:47
larger population I’d say this
33:50
population hysteria then was in that
33:52
direction right now last few years of
33:56
course the fashion is just the opposite
33:57
so anytime a baby gets born that’s
33:59
peculiar
34:00
almost a bonfire lit outside to protest
34:03
and we have a zero population growth
34:05
group etcetera well we have I think it
34:08
raised similar kind of irrationality in
34:10
part of booth both forces one of the
34:13
points is in general in an economic
34:15
analysis of population is with usually
34:17
you get about the population that you
34:18
need in the census the population the
34:21
quantity of population is usually about
34:23
what in a long run about what’s not
34:24
needed about what’s best for the capital
34:27
structurally agree of markets the
34:29
division wave the whole rest of it and
34:31
so what’s over a population in one area
34:33
might be all in the same area might be
34:34
under the population in very different
34:35
circumstances and vice versa for example
34:38
we all know about the evil spot well
34:42
first thought it was the first basin of
34:45
community population control it was a
34:48
role of rigorous case was a case kick
34:51
even our current Big Z PGP well my book
34:53
a wee bit the Spartan Method Man first
34:56
lady I have member Spartan to know Fifth
34:58
Amendment to know better rights or any
35:00
of that stuff so they went all that’s
35:02
the Spartan situation support of ancient
35:05
Greece any new Spartan baby would
35:07
immediately be put out in the woods at
35:08
night for 24 hours by itself if a died
35:11
there was too bad it showed it was unfit
35:13
Phyllis rigors of sporting life
35:16
and if it lived and Iverson you’re
35:17
accepted in the community and racist
35:18
this is a primitive method of population
35:20
controls before our modern techniques
35:22
the reason why the sport means is that
35:24
it’s not because they were pulling
35:26
monsters or because there was somehow
35:28
anti baby and some philosophic sense the
35:29
reason he did it was very simple a way
35:31
they’re living in a static society
35:33
there’s no free market to say the least
35:35
them is great because totalitarian caste
35:37
kind of system militarist kind of system
35:39
and so there are no jobs available drink
35:41
these people is very simple it’s only
35:44
really a free market that constantly
35:45
generates new jobs for new people if you
35:47
have a status society or Spanish economy
35:50
everybody you know the son of the
35:52
coroner becomes a carpenter the son of a
35:54
butcher becomes a butcher and all that
35:55
well in what happens with a butcher has
35:56
two sons and then your real trouble and
35:58
how is he dude so you put them out in
36:01
the woods at night you do something else
36:02
so the point is the population problem
36:05
really do this when you have a we have a
36:07
caste kind of system we have a non-free
36:09
system a pre-industrial society or a
36:12
post-industrial society which is so
36:13
controlled and restricted they can’t do
36:15
much and so the sporting did it not
36:18
because they were full of awfully anti
36:19
baby because they were driven to it by
36:20
EB C he cannot make aspirations the
36:22
other hand Athens doesn’t have to do
36:24
what was asking was a flourishing market
36:26
kind of economy and there were killed
36:27
highly commercialized didn’t suffer of
36:29
any kind of overpopulation question so
36:32
again how much what the optimum
36:34
population is it depends very much and
36:35
what’s going on in the whole system for
36:37
example the North American continent
36:39
when Columbus discovered America and
36:41
wasn’t North American continent
36:42
including Mexico and Canada United
36:46
States have approximately million
36:47
Indians puzzle it’s very difficult to
36:49
figure out say a minyan Indian about it
36:51
these a million Indians we’re not
36:53
exactly living in an affluent state if
36:55
there have been ten percent more Indians
36:57
they all might have one motive star
36:58
there was a very limited kind of system
37:00
but the millions are just about the
37:03
right population say for that you cannot
37:05
make terms for the whole land the areas
37:07
like North American now of course
37:09
we have something like 400 million
37:10
living in the same place harrier million
37:13
in the instant live living all of whom
37:15
are living at a much higher living
37:16
standard even the poorest American and
37:18
Canadian much Harlem extent of the
37:19
average Indian and without too much
37:22
trouble the reason being of course the
37:23
difference the increase capital
37:24
investments activity the whole market
37:28
economy
37:28
comes into the picture so 400 million
37:30
Indians in I guess 1490 would have a
37:32
holy mess and their unholy method right
37:34
with everybody killing each other for
37:36
love a few pieces of food that were left
37:38
400 million people now they’re pretty
37:40
got fairly good shape so again the
37:43
population is not a sort of an absolute
37:44
from outside it depends on the economics
37:47
of it depends on what’s going on with a
37:48
capital investment with us the whole
37:50
standard of living of the production
37:52
system and so forth you can’t really
37:54
isolate one from the other to get an
37:56
example of our population right now even
37:58
let’s just look at the Indians countries
38:01
there’s a very high population density
38:03
probably the highest population density
38:05
is say Holland at least one of Ohio has
38:08
an enormous number of people per square
38:09
mile yet experts have a very high
38:10
standard of living
38:11
Japan is a really high population
38:13
density has a high standard of living
38:14
growing Hong Kong has a huge population
38:17
density the Normans number of people
38:18
techne no resources at all that has a
38:20
very high standard of living on the
38:22
other hand there are many very poor
38:24
areas in the world which has a very low
38:26
population density many parts of South
38:29
America are very few people on it be a
38:31
few Indians living on practically
38:32
nothing you know here you have a
38:33
situation a very low population and a
38:36
low strain of lovely many parts of
38:38
Africa very few people in the to see our
38:40
our image of the teeming masses and
38:42
others all countries is really mostly in
38:43
Asia when you get to Africa and South
38:45
America a very different kind of
38:47
situation even in Asia as I say you have
38:49
teeming masses in Hong Kong all doing it
38:51
very well also in say in China which is
38:53
physically highly popular when at least
38:57
most of the population is in the coastal
38:59
areas and land and have refuel there’s
39:01
really no correlation between quantity
39:03
between population density and living
39:05
standards and within the United States
39:08
the CPG barracks have reached a
39:11
historical combination just as a point I
39:13
can kind of tragic irony or whatever a
39:15
non tragic irony this is the point of
39:17
population growth is decreasing
39:19
leveling off where the last few years
39:21
we’ve had a big leveling oil from the
39:22
birth rate and this will presumably
39:25
continue hopeful more mother zpg people
39:29
but certainly a trend which which
39:30
started before zpg will continue on
39:32
after because for various reasons that
39:35
you cannot make a cultural etc very try
39:37
just leveling off very rapidly and we’ll
39:39
get to a CPG point a couple
39:41
years right sort of typical
39:44
characteristic but the high point of zpg
39:46
hysteria comes with a point where the
39:47
CPG goals of me achieve anyway
39:50
basic reasons for this fairly some
39:54
probably the first thing that happens
39:55
with you when you industrialize this is
39:58
what happened Western Europe is what
39:59
happens what’s happened in the
40:00
underdeveloped countries in spending a
40:01
century first thing it happens easily
40:02
population as we cut the death rate lots
40:05
of people would have died the age of six
40:06
now live because of modern medicine we
40:10
have a big cut in a desk right now this
40:11
big cut if you have a same birth rate
40:13
and a big Kutner that’s right what
40:14
you’re gonna have is an increase in
40:15
population usually manic increase in
40:17
population this is not because people
40:19
are reading faster particularly because
40:21
people are not dying off as fast so in
40:24
19th century England you had a big
40:25
increase in population the same way in
40:27
many 20th century of all countries and
40:29
what what has always happen up to emmaus
40:32
so that way which seems to be fair a bit
40:34
fair to happen in the future is as the
40:36
economy develops so the family living
40:38
goes up each family decides to cut their
40:41
birth rate because they don’t want to
40:42
have eight families and right once they
40:44
if you have eight kids and are in a
40:46
formal situation world one situation
40:49
it’s usually an economic asset of each
40:51
kid has a jerk there’s no child labor
40:52
laws on the farms each kid have easier
40:54
fire I think it’s not looking in a cow
40:55
at a roast and so kids it usually a net
40:58
economic asset to the farmer and as you
41:00
organize and as you industrialize this
41:02
isn’t true the mission before about the
41:04
keeping Charlie burn out and saw labor
41:06
laws even so even without that I presume
41:09
Elizabeth
41:10
kids very often being that economic
41:12
liability of a parent for a minute for a
41:14
long time if not forever so kids in the
41:16
urban America now really consumption
41:17
good rather than they rather than
41:19
investment while the factor of
41:21
production as the kid gets all learning
41:23
and goes off on his own he doesn’t pop
41:25
back much money to the parents offers
41:27
anyway the kid’s father paragon serves
41:30
and nothing can Omega liability might be
41:31
great mica gas said but economically you
41:33
don’t there’s a liability so as a result
41:35
in which and looking take a great genius
41:37
to realize this if big cuts in the birth
41:40
rate and and few where that’s the
41:42
economy develops and invest realizes and
41:44
organizes the military tends to fall
41:46
quite dramatically I could tell you
41:49
evening of course is a journalistic in
41:51
my own family my grandparents late
41:54
parents had about eight kids of eight
41:55
kids from both sides my grandparents has
41:57
less than that and the present
41:59
generation is like one kid a piece of
42:00
that though or two so the the big
42:03
falling orphan and birth rates as the
42:05
people sound live and go up I presume
42:08
this will continue so you have an
42:11
initial cut in there that’s right
42:12
this course is a big increase of
42:13
population everybody gets hysterical
42:14
about this because if you projected the
42:17
projective trend you’ll have ten billion
42:18
people living on a square footing Oh Oh
42:20
nonsense
42:20
but actually what happens this is people
42:22
can control their lives in skew with
42:25
after a certain gap of couple of
42:27
generations will falling off from the
42:28
birthrate and you wind up with a sort of
42:30
a pleasant situation within the United
42:34
States by the way that appears everybody
42:35
we’re – everything is too crowded and
42:37
books have been written this guy’s on a
42:40
roll for example who was kind of
42:41
interesting phenomenon because young
42:43
ello is a French reactionary the deepest
42:45
died reactionary the truest sense is a
42:47
Calvinist nut who wants to go back
42:49
before the industrial era and go back
42:51
everybody weaving his own boots no
42:53
authoress – paste technology with a
42:56
purple passion so he has made great corn
42:58
with a new restless very different
43:00
reasons a technology and it was think of
43:02
Ellis and being some sort of new leftist
43:04
then they should only know any rate
43:06
Elroy talks about the good ol days
43:08
a glorious old days the Middle Ages
43:10
everybody with mobile the things weren’t
43:12
crowded and people had a lot of room and
43:14
sort of always beating space once we’re
43:16
on a nonsense in the Middle Ages
43:17
everybody living a little hut with five
43:20
pigs and the one eight kids that sort of
43:22
stuff it never moved at all it was
43:23
flawed beyond the boundaries at five
43:25
miles so why do we think it was so
43:28
crowded actually if you look at the
43:29
statistics we find in the United States
43:32
I think the last census 1970 census
43:35
showed that from 1960 to 1970 was an
43:38
absolute fool and population for I think
43:39
one-third the county United States the
43:41
client population that’s just a leveling
43:43
off of growth do you have a lot in those
43:45
towns out there the little west of the
43:47
southwest if you’ve ever even seen on
43:49
the movie your last picture show is the
43:51
pressing picture of who who collapsed a
43:53
gradual collapse in this town people
43:56
leave people go to the big city and so
43:58
for and so on an absolute decline a lot
44:00
of population there’s a lot of there’s a
44:02
lot of land out there with no people on
44:04
it and the West my aspiration wants to
44:06
go they have under the
44:07
different question altogether point is a
44:09
lot somewhere lots of empty spaces even
44:12
the inner city they’re not really
44:13
increase in population New York City has
44:15
remained the same total population about
44:17
30-40 years now same seven million and
44:20
we haven’t increased at all the thing
44:22
which has increased in the eye space the
44:24
population has a grievous suburbs no
44:26
question about that but aside from the
44:28
suburbs it really has never been no
44:30
population growth worth speaking in that
44:32
and the total itself is leveling off
44:35
reason why we think it’s more crowded as
44:38
if people are too affluent as people
44:40
stand out let me go up they zip around a
44:41
lot go to Europe the other vacation area
44:44
and so when someone there they make
44:45
themselves visible which they weren’t
44:46
before see the medieval peasant daring
44:48
hut with eight pigs wasn’t visible
44:50
anybody except for whoever happened to
44:52
wander in since there were no roads
44:54
there were no roads or those days that
44:56
wasn’t very likely so you have a
44:59
situation seems seem more crowded that
45:01
really it but it’s not the cause of
45:02
population growth is because of it it’s
45:03
really because people a better orphanage
45:05
but is it around a lot more and they
45:07
come into the big city you know this
45:08
dual so they will also some Singlish
45:10
make things appear crowded I don’t know
45:13
what solution there is to that or this
45:15
crowding thing I mean this boy about
45:17
either going off of the hills of Montana
45:19
and and coming affirm it which is one
45:21
solution or killing off holy people
45:24
which is not a very libertarian solution
45:28
also not very practical or hoping they
45:31
become impoverished you go back to where
45:32
they you know stop traveling it’s also
45:34
pretty impractical where there’s a lot
45:35
of being pretty pretty evil today right
45:38
that we borrow that without really
45:39
population with the strains and crowding
45:42
of over more affluent society it becomes
45:45
very helpful in the economic sense to to
45:48
think in terms of again not population
45:50
is an absolute but relatively to the
45:52
economy look at this diagram and one
45:54
more diagram conflict and this diagram
45:57
we have standard of living or rich per
45:59
person I mean products per person on the
46:03
y-axis and number of people on the
46:07
x-axis and we had no people at all and I
46:11
was there if a great new play came out
46:13
and like all of us out tonight the whole
46:15
world outside there won’t be no
46:16
production anymore so we thought of it
46:18
it’s not the origin point
46:20
and we keep going up in other words what
46:23
we have us and we keep increasing number
46:25
of people we increase the production per
46:27
capita it will finally you reach a point
46:29
where which is a maximum then level rule
46:32
for at the corner this is a standard of
46:35
living again I figure this this is this
46:38
maximum point otherwise this corner and
46:41
economics the optimum point in other
46:42
words at this point this is the optimum
46:44
population – population vvx zero that’s
46:48
on the x-axis to get up to this maximum
46:51
ceiling the living production now the
46:54
thing is I don’t like these I don’t like
46:56
the term optimum very unfortunate
46:58
implies ethical unethical and promoter
47:01
doesn’t really have to do it or simply
47:03
means maximum population and maximum
47:05
standard living per person it doesn’t
47:07
necessarily have to be the ethical or
47:09
moral optimum because it could very well
47:10
be that people could say well I rather
47:12
have more kids in the family take a
47:14
slight reduction in output has five kids
47:18
instead of to have a 10% income cut so
47:21
they’re not in morals or for them to do
47:23
this so optimum population simply mean
47:25
from the maximum population point per
47:27
head for any level of population or
47:29
given for every country every economy
47:32
and every capital structure every
47:34
technological picture will be some
47:36
different kind of some different point
47:37
point is again a theme for the Indians
47:39
it was part of the left of the AIA
47:41
states
47:42
the Indians immaculate optimum
47:43
population let’s say was a million for
47:44
us it might be who knows more like 400
47:47
million pictures and ask the country’s
47:50
going to tonight from someplace a half
47:52
the United States die than a plague
47:54
tonight this cuts the labor force back
47:57
to here on the chart now this would mean
47:59
that we have a lot of factories and a
48:00
lot of production productive equipment
48:01
lying idle this would cut the output per
48:04
capita but we would simply wouldn’t have
48:06
a people the man all the stuff which
48:08
keeps the whole production system and
48:09
capital system together the other hand
48:11
for you suddenly angel Gabriel came down
48:13
and double the population overnight and
48:15
cloned us also to magically you know
48:17
it’s magic cloning or something needs to
48:18
be tore off bars and so on we have
48:21
double of concentrations then we have
48:22
again a problem we have so many people
48:24
perfect for the machines if further work
48:27
for them to do
48:28
the capital will go down we know pretty
48:30
well if we either double the population
48:32
overnight or have the overnight
48:33
we’d be below the optimum population
48:35
point you don’t know really what the
48:37
optimum population is a point is
48:38
speaking the statisticians can’t really
48:40
tell us but we know conceptually and we
48:42
know pretty much that the economy will
48:44
tend to be in a long run more or less
48:46
about the optimum at least not to score
48:47
on either side of it they see if you
48:51
take the population growth you don’t
48:52
account for these trends you simply
48:54
extrapolate the trend automatically as
48:57
many of these positions you’ll wind up
48:58
at 10 billion people per square foot in
49:00
the Year 2200 or ever but nonsense is
49:03
the point I’m trying to say is if the
49:05
economist looks upon a population
49:07
problem with benign neglect use a term
49:10
it’s in the use in other areas
49:14
forgetting a little about the right way
49:16
belly aching in bathroom one of the
49:20
reasons about the ztg thing that’s
49:21
happened is because in the first few
49:25
decades and there 19:20 19:30 first new
49:28
decade exact World War one the birthrate
49:30
in United States felt pretty
49:31
dramatically this is sort of continuing
49:32
for the birth rate and the population
49:35
rate and in terms also rate of
49:37
population growth was falling we’re
49:38
gonna get to a we were getting to a CPG
49:40
kind of situation provides reasons both
49:43
of affluence the fact that women were
49:44
coming more career oriented and so for
49:46
when so on and the whole culture had
49:47
changed the idea that the function of
49:50
his family is not necessarily have as
49:51
many babies as possible and cetera the
49:53
things are going on pretty well for the
49:54
CPG types when thingo comes World War
49:57
two and then we had a sudden shift and
49:59
obviously a one-shot kind of shift and
50:02
culture those are all wrong values and
50:07
the veterans came back in World War two
50:08
it was a big impetus for baby has a
50:11
enormous just back the whole idea that
50:13
the place for women is in the home and
50:15
hanging up curtains and producing lots
50:17
of babies this is presumably a reaction
50:19
to the war the fact that everybody was
50:20
obsessed with who’s going to die in the
50:22
war they want a sense of immortality in
50:24
rootless and all that and the result of
50:26
this was sort of temporary 1020 year
50:29
baby boom and maybe oriented culture he
50:32
has for quite a while and I interpret
50:34
the whole zpg thing as a sort of a
50:36
hysterical shift back to
50:37
what was what had been the trend anyway
50:40
before 1945 I would probably continue to
50:42
be anyway and so we’re getting back now
50:44
to essentially the affluent sort of know
50:49
women and working and so for and so on
50:51
which you are getting anyway in the
50:52
twenties and thirties ish we ran out I
50:53
think coming back to well I think that’s
50:57
basically I have to say about population
50:59
I think that’s basically I have to say
51:01
about population I think that’s
51:02
basically I have to say about population
51:05
I think that’s basically I have to say
51:07
about population I think that’s
51:08
basically I have to say about population
51:10
I think that’s basically

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